Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on the US have been moving fast--in the wrong direction.
US 5 Year CDS are now over 32. As the table below shows, that's up a lot, although actually off of recent highs. The current value implies a 0.54% probability of default assuming a 40% recovery rate.
Source: World Government Bonds
But these are 5 year swaps. Nearer-term, it's more interesting. US 1 Year CDS are at 135 bps, up from just 18 bps at the beginning of the year. Is that a lot? Well, it's higher than ~80 bps zone the last time we had a pitched debt limit contretemps circa July 2011 and October 2013. Moreover, Treasury prices today are much lower than those from 2011 and 2013, with the cheapest to deliver being ~$56 now versus ~$85 in 2011 and 2013, and thus the potential loss on a technical default would be much higher.
Net/net, 1 Year CDS point to a 3.6% probability of default. That's higher than we've seen in some time. And with the fractiousness in DC, it wouldn't be surprising if those risks remain elevated.
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